Why the Chinese stock market and 19th century railways have a lot in common

Market Crash

This week it has been difficult to avoid news about the Chinese stock market crash. On Monday the Shanghai Composite Index fell by more than 8% and over the last three months it’s down by more than 30%. However, is this really all that surprising? I don’t think it is. Consider this: In the 12 […]

Shares in Stagecoach Group PLC could be riskier than many investors believe


Summary Stagecoach Group PLC is a FTSE 250-listed public transport company which is focused on the UK bus market but also has UK rail and North American bus businesses The company has grown quickly and steadily in recent years and the shares are up by about 75% over the last five years My “fair value” […]

FTSE 250 Valuation and forecast for 2015 Q3

stock market

FTSE 250 forecasts are pretty thin on the ground, despite it being something I get asked to do quite frequently. To fix that, I’m going to start a quarterly series of valuations and forecasts for the mid-cap index. Valuing indices using Robert Shiller’s Cyclically Adjusted PE ratio (CAPE) The CAPE ratio is a much better option […]

Are Rolls Royce shares worth buying after their 40% decline?

Market Crash

Summary Rolls-Royce PLC is a global engine and power systems business with market-leading positions in several markets After four profit warnings in the last 18 months, investors are cautious and the shares have fallen by around 40% The company expects its current problems to be resolved in the medium-term and longer-term still expects significant growth My […]

UKVI Portfolio review for 2015 Q2

ROI - return on investment

How time flies. Another quarter of a year has passed and so it’s time for me to review the UKVI Portfolio once again. That makes me happy because portfolio construction is one of my favourite topics (sad, I know). Note that while this is a virtual portfolio it effectively contains my “best ideas” and so […]

SABMiller shares are close to my estimate of fair value

Investment Analysis

Beer and soft drink manufacturer SABMiller PLC has had a fantastic run over the past few years. The shares have leapt from less than 1,000p in the financial crisis to around 3,250p today. But does that mean the best gains are in the past rather than the future? In order to find out (or at […]

Weekend investing links: How to invest like an alchemist

Bear & Bull Market

The “How to invest like an alchemist” line was inspired by an old article by Ed Croft at Stockopedia.  In it, Ed makes the point that the individual stocks within a portfolio don’t necessarily need to have all of the characteristics that you’re looking for at the portfolio level. So if you’re looking to build a portfolio that has […]

UK Mail PLC Looks like good value to me


I have some history with UK Mail PLC, having bought shares in the company in October 2011 and sold them one year later, for a 33.7% total return.  I thought it was a solid – if unexciting – business that was well worth investing in at the right price. Having sold in October 2012 for 262.5p […]

UK Housing market valuation and forecast – June 2015 (part 2)

House price to average earnings ratio table - 2015 06

In part one of this UK housing market valuation and forecast, I looked at the latest house price to earnings ratio in the context of historic norms (here’s a link to part one). My conclusion was that the UK housing market appears to be at the “expensive” end of its valuation spectrum, with the house […]

Weekend investing links: New Bank of England blog (and some other things)

Bear & Bull Market

Quote of the week It’s very helpful to view the world as behaving cyclically and oscillating rather than going in a straight line. Everything is cyclical. – Howard Marks That quote comes from an interview in the Observer which is in fact an excerpt from what could be an interesting new book called The Great Minds […]