In this post I’m going to do a valuation and projection for the S&P 500 using Robert Shiller’s CAPE ratio. I think this is worth … [Read more...]
Market valuations
FTSE 250 forecast for 2017: An expected decline of 8%
Today the FTSE 250 stands about 50% above its pre-financial crisis highs and more than 200% above its post-crisis lows. Those are … [Read more...]
FTSE 100 forecast for 2017: Up, but not by much
In December 2015 I wrote the first of what will hopefully be a very long series of annual forecasts for the FTSE 100, FTSE 250, S&P 500 … [Read more...]
UK house price forecast: It’s not looking good
Most people I speak to think that UK house prices are ridiculously high, especially in London. Admittedly, this is not a novel idea. … [Read more...]
S&P 500 Forecast: Medium-term returns are likely to be negative
The S&P 500 has produced fantastic results for investors since the Great Financial Crisis. However, largely because of those rapid gains … [Read more...]
The FTSE 250’s CAPE ratio suggests the index is close to fair value
It would be fair to say that in the immediate aftermath of the Brexit referendum the FTSE 250 crashed. It fell by more than 13%, taking the … [Read more...]
Brexit: The investment impact one week on
By now I’m fairly sure that you’re suffering from Brexit fatigue; I know I am. So I’m going to keep this as short as possible and then, … [Read more...]
The FTSE 100 is cheap, thanks to a 20-year sideways market
On Wednesday the FTSE 100 closed just above 6301 points, continuing a near-20 year tradition of failing to get much above that level. For … [Read more...]
Why UK house prices are likely to fall over the next decade
UK housing market valuations are at record highs. That’s probably not much of a surprise to most people, but the negative implications for … [Read more...]