Each issue of the UK Value Investor newsletter includes a stock screen covering more than 200 FTSE All-Share companies, each of which has a ten-year unbroken record of dividend payments.
This screen is used as the first step in deciding which stocks to add to the model portfolio (the second step is an analysis of the company’s business, rather than just its accounts).
The stock screen ranks stocks by a combination of five factors:
- Growth Rate – How fast a company has grown over ten years
- Growth Quality – How consistently a company has grown over ten years
- Profitability – How profitable a company has been over ten years
- PE10 ratio – The share price to ten-year average earnings ratio
- PD10 ratio – The share price to ten-year average dividend ratio
If you want to find out exactly how each of those factors is calculated have a look at the free resources page; there are worksheets and spreadsheets where you can calculate each factor for any company.
To see what the stock screen looks like in the newsletter, have a look at these sample issues.
Interactive online stock screen
Subscribers also have access to an interactive online version of the stock screen.
With the online screen you can sort the list of over 200 companies by dividend yield, Growth Rate, Profitability or any of the five factors above.
You can also restrict the list by selecting those shares that have – for example – dividend yields above 4%, Growth Rates above 5% and Profitability above 15%.
Once you’ve sorted and selected the stocks to your personal criteria you can then download the underlying data to a spreadsheet for further analysis.
Using the stock screen
The screen is built using the same data as the screen in the newsletter. It is updated after the market close each Friday (typically on Saturday morning) using the latest end of week data.
- Colour coding:
- General: Green = better than FTSE 100. Light red = worse than FTSE 100. Dark red = unacceptably high or low.
- Debt: Light red = above 4 (max for cyclical sector companies). Dark red = above 5 (max for defensive sector companies).
- Capex: Light red = Capex/profit ratio above 100% (max if capex/depreciation ratio is above 200%).
- Sort: Click on a column header to sort (ascending or descending)
- Select: Use the selection tools at the bottom of the table to restrict the data to a particular range. For example, if you only wanted to view shares that were better than the FTSE 100 on every measure you would enter the FTSE 100’s current Rank into the Rank “to” field, its Yield into the related “from” field, PE10 into the “to” field, Growth into the “from” field, Quality into the “from” field and 5 into the Debt “to” field (because shares with a Debt Ratio of more than 5 are generally excluded from the model portfolio).
- Download/Copy: You can download the data as a spreadsheet in either Excel (XLSX) or text (CSV) format. You can also copy the data to the clipboard in tab-delimited text format. Any sort and/or select settings will be reflected in the downloaded or copied data.
- Rank: The company’s rank on the screen, with 1 being the highest rank. The rank is calculated by sorting all of the companies on the screen by each factor (Growth, Quality, PE10, PD10, ROC), creating a rank for each factor and then adding those individual ranks together.
- Price: The share price in £.
- PE: The price to earnings ratio. This is included just for information and doesn’t form part of the ranking calculation.
- Yield: The historic dividend yield. This is included for information only and doesn’t form part of the Rank calculation. Instead, each company’s Rank is based on PD10, the ratio between the current share price and the average dividend paid over the past 10 years.
- PE10: The ratio between the current share price and the company’s average adjusted earnings per share over the past 10 years. This is used in the Rank calculation.
- Growth: Growth Rate. This is used in the Rank calculation. It is the average growth of revenues, earnings and dividends where growth in each is measured as the annualised growth of a 3-year rolling average over the past 7 years.
- Quality: Growth Quality. This is used in the Rank calculation. It is the percentage of times that a profit has been made, and that revenues, earnings and dividends have increased, measured over the past decade.
- Net Prof.: Net Profitability. This is used in the Rank calculation. It is measured as the median net (i.e. post-tax) profitability over the last decade. Profitability is measured either using return on capital employed (ROCE) for non-financial companies, or return on equity (ROE) for financial companies. The calculation for each year is:
- For non-financial companies: Adjusted profit after tax / (fixed assets + working capital)
- For financial companies (banks and insurance companies): Adjusted profit after tax / shareholders’ equity
- Debt: Debt Ratio – The ratio between a company’s total borrowings (total interest bearing debt) and its Current Earnings Power (CEP). Provides a rough guide to a company’s ability to carry its debts in good times and bad. For:
- Banks – The Debt Ratio is not applicable (N/A). Other metrics such as the Common Equity Tier 1 Ratio, Liquidity Coverage Ratio and Net Stable Funding Ratio are used instead.
- Insurance Companies – The Debt Ratio is not known (N/K) as I do not have bulk access to insurance company borrowings figures. However, the Debt Ratio does apply to insurance companies and can be calculated manually by dividing total borrowings from the balance sheet by Current Earnings Power (CEP).
- Capex: Capex Ratio, measured as the ratio between a company’s 10-yr capex and 10-yr post-tax profits.
Maximum and minimum allowable values
While the stock selection and ranking system is based primarily on the relative strength of the various growth, quality or value factors between companies and the FTSE 100, there are also hard limits beyond which a company will not be allowed into the model portfolio. Stocks with values beyond these limits have them highlighted in dark red and currently the limits are:
- PE10: Maximum value of 30
- Growth Rate: Minimum value of 2%
- Growth Quality: Minimum value of 50%
- Net Profitability: Minimum value of 7%
- Debt Ratio: Maximum value of 4 for companies in cyclical sectors and 5 for companies in defensive sectors
- Capex Ratio: Maximum of 100% if the capex/depreciation ratio is above 200%.
Defensive and cyclical sectors
This is a list of the official FTSE Sectors used in the stock screen, grouped into either defensive or cyclical sectors as defined in the Capita Dividend Monitor:
- Aerospace & Defense
- Fixed Line Telecommunications
- Food & Drug Retailers
- Food Producers
- Gas, Water & Multiutilities
- Health Care Equipment & Services
- Mobile Telecommunications
- Nonlife Insurance
- Personal Goods
- Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology
- Automobiles & Parts
- Construction & Materials
- Electronic & Electrical Equipment
- Financial Services
- Forestry & Paper
- General Industrials
- General Retailers
- Household Goods & Home Construction
- Industrial Engineering
- Industrial Metals & Mining
- Industrial Transportation
- Leisure Goods
- Life Insurance
- Oil & Gas Producers
- Oil Equipment, Services & Distribution
- Real Estate Investment & Services
- Software & Computer Services
- Support Services
- Technology Hardware & Equipment
- Travel & Leisure
Take the next step
If you want to learn more about defensive value investing, you should subscribe to the blog and download these free resources.